Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell is an international banker from Austria. Ms Tumpel-Gugerell started her career at the Austrian Central Bank (Oesterreichische Nationalbank) in 1975, where she worked at the economics department, was Head of Internal Audit, Strategic Planning, and Vice-Governor from 1998 to 2003, responsible for Economics, Financial Markets and International Relations. From 2003 to 2011, Ms Tumpel-Gugerell served as a member of the Executive Board at the European Central Bank. Ms Tumpel-Gugerell graduated from the University of Vienna in Social and Economic Sciences with a PhD in 1981. She sits on the board of several corporations, including Vienna Insurance Group, Commerzbank AG, OMV Group, and AT&S.
Since 2018, Ms Tumpel-Gugerell has been a member of the International Monetary Fund’s External Advisory Group on Surveillance.
In the recent decade, crises and lingering weak economic conditions have pushed monetary policy to venture out to uncharted waters. Just as many central banks were planning a review of their current strategies – learning from a decade of unconventional policies, evaluating its efficacy, limits, but also side effects – the covid19 shock has thwarted any efforts towards ‘normality’. Likewise, it took the scale and scope of the covid19 pandemic for monetary policy to be joined by fiscal policy and to bring the much-discussed double-barrel policy regime forward. But addressing the complex economic, employment and social consequences of this crisis calls for sensible policy sequencing on both central bankers’ and fiscal authorities’ parts, looking ahead. Central banks’ balance sheets are to swell significantly this year, in tandem with a colossal increase in public debt. In addition, there is a deepening link between fiscal and monetary policy domains. Against such a backdrop, how will we deal with the resulting fiscal deficits and prevent them from undermining markets? What are the perils for central bank independence and how can it be sustained going forward? What are the limits of quantitative easing and public borrowing? Are SGP rules dead forever? What about inflation and the pricing of different asset classes?